Wednesday, 21 March 2018

I listened to the film - Boom Bust Boom - several times before taking notes the last time through.  I scribbled down eight pages of notes about various topics, but the main theme is that we are in trouble.  The film is listed as 2015 or 2016 in origin, and one comment in the film said this cycle of the 2008 crash isn't really over.  If debt is the main source of financial instability in a financial cycle from boom to crash, our debt is heavy on the scales.  I would think it is about to tip over.

I guess one message that kept getting repeated in the testimonies of the economists that were interviewed was that all the projections we listen to, and depend on, are made without all the important parts in them... they are created with financial models that don't take the downside into consideration... they are based on no-fail models... best scenario perspectives... always hopeful, never real computations.  It really is a terrible thing to discover the truth, especially about our government... which will never tell us the real truth so we won't panic.

Panic sets in at the stock markets because all that money is tied to real lives... to people who depend on it like I depend on the government for the small amount I have to live on.  I assumed people who invested in the stock market only used their "extra" money.  I discovered the meaning of the word "margin" with this film.  In the desire to "win big" when the euphoric mentality is in play, people will borrow money to purchase stocks they think will bring them a big reward in cash... the ones "everyone" is buying because the rumor is it is the hottest buy of the season.  You can see where that leads... eventually the hot fad dies and someone loses out.

I think the TULIP example from the film was a good example.  All the way back in 1562 people were trying to make money fast.  The commodity then was a bunch of tulip bulbs.  They were promoted by being displayed in new and wealthy gardens, talked up by those who were in the middle of the growth cycle, and then in the end of the cycle there were all sellers and no buyers.  The film said this cycle started in 1562 and ended in 1637...  so it isn't a quick cycle, it is a long cycle that grows kind of like a PONZI scheme... with prices rising as the demand for the "asset" grows.

We see this every day, every season, every year... the economic cycle is more widespread and affects all of us even if all of us are not the ones buying and selling.

I was really disgusted by the example called the SOUTH SEA TRADING COMPANY crash.  This was a manipulation of the English government to deal with its debt.  They forced all the people they owed money to into accepting stock in a trading company for their debt payment.  They were suppose to get their money back with the profits it made.  The unspoken problem was that they didn't own the trade agreements with South America, Spain did... and both countries were at war.  This cycle didn't take as long as the tulips.  It was over in less than 10 years as far as I could tell from the dates mentioned. I think this was the crash that mentioned Sir Isaac Newton lost over two million pounds in this forced relationship and failure.  Government... is it really our friend?  Or is it more concerned with its own survival?

The housing crisis was spoken of as being equal, close to equal, with the 1929 Crash.  I don't think that is really a true statement when you think of the long-term devastation that followed the 1929 Crash... but, it seems to be that way to the economist/s that compared them.  In some of the discussions about the housing crisis (the Sub-Prime Crisis) of 2008, I learned about the FICO evaluations and how they were ignored, and how the government used the argument that the disenfranchised were able to purchase homes because the normal guidelines were set aside.  I also learned about NINJA loans -- No Income No Jobs or Assets.  That is scary.

I didn't like the continued reference to the people who were able to purchase homes as being destined to lose their homes.  In watching other coverage about the crisis, it was stated that many people who were able to make their payments suddenly lost their options when the Variable tax rate was increased beyond anyone's ability to pay.  If the banks really cared about the people and the homes they needed, all they need to do was renew that same contract, or make a better one.

I would love the option to do it all differently... according to GOD's Word... but that takes money I don't have.  I'm not sure what that lack of provision means in Christian/Jewish terms, but it has been a sad part of my prayers.

It is easy to pick up that people don't want to be warned, or listen to any warnings.  There were people who warned about the dangers for decades... decades!  Hyman Minsky seems to be the biggest example.  He was discredited, he was disputed, he was left out of the conversations, because his warning did not fit in with the popular message of the day... that the economy was sound and there were no possibilities of financial bubbles.  :-(   It sounds like the food issues we face today... if it isn't the "right" message, it gets destroyed... in the media, etc.  I suppose climate change could fit in this formula, and the oil crisis, and education, and all the other disputes we never get the truth about.

There is no way I can share all of the details about this film or the notes I took.  You have to watch it yourself.  Boom Bust Boom - a silly title, but that is what it is about.  I will say that I found it on the FREE movie list for Xfinity, but it links to Netflix for free viewing.  I wouldn't know how to link it that way.  Search the movies at Xfinity if you have that cable provider.

Make sure you listen for all the comments about a "Free Market" form of economy.  It might help you to survive our current GLOBAL economic dangers.

Until next time,
In Christ,

Deborah Martin
work2gather.us

*
*
*
May GOD help us to prepare for the days ahead, as individuals, families, and nations.
May we set our priorities on long-term survival, on debt reduction and elimination, on less is better than too much.
May our churches start to see themselves as families, and figure out what resources they have to help each other when the times get worse, when persecutions rise, when the End Times become our times.
May we find fellowship with those who believe as we do, who believe in the true Bible, who believe in the true Christ, and who will one day be in heaven with us.

May GOD provide now for the needs ahead of us.
Amen.